Shrinking Schools

California recorded its ninth consecutive annual decline in public K–12 enrollment in 2025–26. Public Policy Institute of California’s January 2026 analysis found that about 70% of California school districts had experienced enrollment declines over the preceding decade, and coastal districts have some of the largest losses. Between 2015-16 and 2025-26, Del Mar Heights and Hills schools have experienced a 33% drop in enrollment. Several forces are likely responsible for the decline: lower birth rates; an aging population; families leaving California for other states, changes to immigration policy, and the geographic redistribution of where children live within California; as well as increases in private-school enrollment and homeschooling.

For most California school districts, declining enrollment means declining revenue because state funding is closely tied to student attendance. As a basic aid district, DMUSD receives most of its general-purpose funding from local property taxes, making it less directly exposed to enrollment-related reductions in state aid. Although DMUSD is not likely to experience a drop in funding, the substantial decline in our enrollment raises difficult questions about how to best allocate our resources. Choices about staffing, class sizes, possible grade-combination classes, and the future of specialized programs such as STEAM+, will shape students’ educational experience. While school closures seem to always be top of mind, a recent Stanford study of California school districts found that school closures did not provide a significant improvement to a district’s oveall s financial position.

The magnitude of the decline remains uncertain. DMUSD annually contracts with MGT to prepare a multi-year demographic study, “Student Population Forecast by Residence.” Below is a table consolidating the forecasts for our area – children residing West of I-5 zoned for Del Mar Heights/Del Mar Hills Academy. For the year 2030, total enrollment for Heights and Hills is expected to be lower than the enrollment of children attending Heights in 2015/16. The latest forecast projects approximately 48 kindergarten students in 2030, down from the 62 kindergarten students currently enrolled at both schools in 2025–26