The good news this winter is that COVID cases are well below the expected number. The bad news is that cases of the flu are much higher than expected. The most recent data for San Diego County had 82 weekly hospitalizations for COVID versus 405 weekly hospitalizations for influenza. For the first time since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, deaths due to flu are higher than deaths due to COVID. The 4-week average for the period from mid-November to mid-January was 4.3 deaths from COVID to 7.5 deaths due to flu. The risk of dying from COVID is still greater than the risk of dying from influenza, but the relative risk has narrowed. However, the death rate from influenza infection could be much higher if a more dangerous flu virus appears.
The risk of that happening is getting higher. The continuing spread of the H5N1 bird flu strains to other animals, and then to humans remains a concern. Even more concerning is the censoring of infectious disease data by the Trump regime. Key information was withheld: the fact that bird flu has spread to domestic cats appeared briefly on the CDC website before it was taken down. A freedom-of-information request from the Kaiser Health News (KHN) was required to access the information. Most of the animal-to-human bird flu infections have been in farm workers exposed to poultry or cattle. We now know that we have a situation where a household pet could be the source of infection.
The KHN report had some information about how some cats became infected: “Los Angeles County’s public health department said five cats from two households tested positive for bird flu after drinking unpasteurized raw milk from the Raw Farm dairy in California’s Central Valley. Raw Farm voluntarily recalled its milk and cream after retail products tested positive for H5N1, but it denies any food safety issues, calling the concern ‘a political issue.’” Really?
As mentioned last month, the bad flu season is caused by flu strains that are distinct from the avian H5N1 strain, but a dual infection with the common strains and the avian one would allow genetic recombination between the two and risk a new more dangerous variant. With steep cuts in research funds and a vaccine skeptic heading the Health and Human Services Department, monitoring for a new flu virus, sharing information about it, and rapidly developing a new vaccine are all in doubt. There is no way to sugarcoat how scary this is. In the meantime, don’t kiss your cat.